Predicting Student Success/Failure
Malcolm Wellstead
University of Hertfordshire
It would be nice to think that there is a straight line relationship between cognitive
ability and performance by university undergraduates. Unfortunately we all know that this
is not so because of a number of variables which may either enhance or depress the
performance of the student. There are a number of questionnaires/tests that are used to
help predict the success or failure of university students. The measures from all of these
have some degree of correlation with results, but not especially high because each deals
with only one variable in a complex situation. The purpose of this study is combine
various measures in a multivariate approach in an attempt to provide a better presictor of
performance and identify the most significant variables that tutors may affect in an
attempt to improve performance.
The study involved 75 first year undergraduate students on business studies and related
programmes all of whom completed a number of questionnaires and undertook a test of
cognitive ability. The results of a multivariate analysis show an improved predictive
ability but only by using a high number of variables. It would also appear that the study
has not taken into account a significant variable. However, the results are sufficiently
encouraging to continue the search for a multivariate model with a second larger sample
and including an additional variable.